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Strømmen STRØMMEN CHALLENGE
19–20 September 2026
Draw and results on Cup2000badmintonportalen tournament 7114
How the predictions turned out
- Events played
- 16 of 17
- Favourites who won
- 9 of 16
- 8.0 expected
- Winners' predicted chance
- 36%
- on average
- Luck showed in the results
- 0.47×
- over 79 entries (1 = as predicted)
The favourite is the entry with the best chance of winning the event with the actual draw. “Luck showed in the results”: each entry's rounds minus its fair-draw expectation, against its luck (a regression through zero). Near 1, a draw rated a round luckier gave about a round more; near 0, the luck didn't show.
- 3%chance before
- 4%chance before
- 6%chance before
Emil Johannes Hagen Søgaard1044StrømmenU13 C men's singles12%chance before
Emilia Brandsdal1206FrognerSEN D women's singles14%chance before
Diyan Thakkar1021Vestre AkerU15 C men's singles16%chance before- 21%chance before
Muhammad Sulaiman1740StavangerSEN A men's singles34%chance before
- +0.40rounds
- +0.38rounds
- Ove Malvin Knutsen1256StrømmenSEN C men's singles · group 1−0.32rounds
- −0.27rounds
- −0.21rounds
How it works
How lucky each player's draw is, from their ratings at the end of the week before the tournament. Every event is played out 20,000 times with each match decided by the players' win chances, once with the actual draw and once with a fair draw: the same players drawn again at random, with the seeds (the strongest by rating: one per group, or 2–8 in a knockout) kept where they are.
Rounds is how far a player is expected to get: one round for getting out of the group and one for every knockout round after that (a bye counts too), and one more for winning. Luck is the rounds expected with the actual draw minus with a fair one. Events with a single group (everyone plays everyone) or just two players or pairs have no luck: they only show each player's chance of winning.
