6%chance of winning
- Mateo Manfreda 1473 +97.4Kirkenes
beat
- Rolf Ivar Olsen 1825 −53.3Alta
21-11, 21-18
Men's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN A) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
The matches won with the lowest chance of winning, week by week.
The win chance is from the ratings right before the match. Only matches between settled players count: every player has played at least 10 matches and has a rating certain to within ±250 in singles or ±180 in doubles, so a junior improving fast beating a favourite isn't counted as an upset. Walkovers and draws are left out.
6%chance of winning
beat
21-11, 21-18
Men's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN A) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
20%chance of winning
beat
Karmøy15-21, 21-19, 21-14
Men's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN A) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
21%chance of winning
beat
Hammerfest21-19, 22-24, 21-11
Men's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN B) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
25%chance of winning
Karmøybeat
18-21, 21-12, 21-18
Men's doubles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN A) · 21 Feb 2026
31%chance of winning
beat
21-14, 16-21, 21-18
Women's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (U15 A) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
35%chance of winning
Hammerfestbeat
21-7, 21-14
Men's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN B) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
37%chance of winning
Karmøybeat
21-11, 23-21
Men's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN A) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
41%chance of winning
beat
Hammerfest16-21, 21-18, 21-16
Men's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN B) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
42%chance of winning
beat
25-23, 21-17
Men's singles · Kirkenes Barents Open 2026 (SEN B) · 21 Feb 2026 · head to head
| Week | Upset | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Dec |

| 1% |
| 8 Dec | Alireza Sedghi+41.6 beat Adrian Olsen-Loe Pedersen−21.621-17, 19-21, 22-20 · Men's singles · Trondheim Julecupen (SEN B) | 3% |
| 1 Dec | Frank Heggen+22.1 beat Nauman Majid−14.018-21, 21-14, 22-20 · Men's singles · Haugerud Haugerud cup (SEN A) | 6% |
| 24 Nov | Prakash Sivasanger+29.9 / Mads Lucien Lelièvre+38.3 beat Dev Singh Jassal−24.4 / Leon Matheo Solbakken Svela−25.421-15, 21-19 · Men's doubles · Moss Moss infinitum julecup RT U17*/SEN (U17 A) | 2% |
| 17 Nov | Patryk Daniel Kilianski+9.3 beat Markus Bjørnevik−7.621-19, 15-21, 21-17 · Men's singles · Klemetsrud Lambertseter & Klemetsrud Open (SEN C) | 3% |
| 10 Nov | Pankaj Bhart+65.6 beat Konrad Soløy Myrbostad−28.221-15, 18-21, 24-22 · Men's singles · Bodø Polarcirkel Cup 2025 (SEN A) | <1% |
| 3 Nov | Håvard Lie Foldnes+68.4 beat Rasmus Bohman−41.322-20, 21-19 · Men's singles · Sotra Vestlandsmesterskapet 2025 (U17 A) | 2% |
| 27 Oct | John Thomas Krogstad+28.8 / Steinar Fornes+26.5 beat Johnny Andersen−18.6 / Børge Bjørnli Nygård−28.112-21, 21-19, 23-21 · Men's doubles · Klæbu Trønderdroppen 2025 (SEN B) | 2% |
| 20 Oct | Giulia Dell'Acqua+9.7 / Gabriel Pettersen Engelberg+12.6 beat Varshini Manikandan−6.3 / Varun Manikandan−7.410-21, 21-16, 21-18 · Mixed doubles · Karmøy RT U15* + U19* (U19 A) | 1% |
| 13 Oct | Bente Sotnes+76.9 beat Martine Skjeltorp Nyborg−35.621-15, 21-18 · Women's singles · Frogner Frognerhøna (SEN B) | 2% |
| 6 Oct | Qiang Du+4.7 / Zhe Wu+4.2 beat Christian Hervard−4.1 / Jenny Hervard−3.621-18, 16-21, 21-18 · Mixed doubles · 2. divisjon Grunnspill (1. MD) | 4% |
| 29 Sep | Brian Berthelsen+108.0 beat Ask Emilian Herlung−68.021-13, 21-23, 21-12 · Men's singles · Moss Mossetreffen 2025 (U15 A) | 9% |
| 22 Sep | Kristoffer Kielland Rædergård+13.2 / Marte Stokkaune+18.0 beat Ingvild Håland−9.2 / Øyvind W. Selboe−11.829-27, 21-17 · Mixed doubles · Rissa Clearcup (SEN A) | 3% |
| 15 Sep | Ole Kristian Lie+25.8 beat Shubham−25.523-21, 21-19 · Men's singles · Kristiansand RT U13 + Sen* (SEN X) | 1% |
| 8 Sep | Pelle Cornelius Nordeide+16.2 beat Keveen Kumar Balasingam−9.716-21, 21-16, 21-17 · Men's singles · Djerv Djerv Høsttreff 2025 (SEN A) | 3% |
| 21 Jul | Kristian Renbjør+14.0 / Trond Flatås+21.0 beat Harald Buvik−14.2 / Kristian Hyllestad−15.521-17, 27-25 · Men's doubles · Kolvereid Liland Køpp (SEN B) | 13% |
| 9 Jun | Pål Endre Pedersen+68.4 beat Carl Christian Møller Jacobsen−56.421-18, 21-16 · Men's singles · Klæbu Midtsommernatt Vinstra 2025! (SEN A) | 1% |
| 26 May | Ane Snustad-Grønskag+41.9 / Sofie Kold Hansen+29.3 beat Amelia Siemiatkowska−28.4 / Celine H Solvang Søvik−29.421-13, 18-21, 21-15 · Women's doubles · Pillarguri OTTA OPEN (U17 A) | 1% |
| 19 May | Pelle Cornelius Nordeide+182.2 beat Joseph Paul−87.221-18, 21-14 · Men's singles · Sandefjord Sandefjord Open 2025 (SEN E) | 3% |
| 5 May | Marthe Evjenth+84.5 / Annelotte Storsul Sverdrup+121.6 beat Wanda Helen Berge−90.4 / Jonah Nyeitera−91.821-16, 21-10 · Women's doubles · Frøya FRØYA IL VÅRYR (SEN C) | 5% |
| 28 Apr | Marthe Evjenth+88.8 beat Celeste Olsen−53.721-18, 21-17 · Women's singles · Alta Alta Open (U17 A) | 12% |
| 21 Apr | Marit Helene helleland+64.2 beat Olea Aanestad−59.221-13, 21-14 · Women's singles · Sola Solaslaget (U17 B) | 3% |
| 7 Apr | Stig Gåsbakk+97.3 beat Sindre Renbjør-holan−74.421-16, 21-15 · Men's singles · Kolvereid NØKKEROSA CUP 2025 (SEN B) | 5% |
| 31 Mar | Amund Nilsen+27.9 / Melanie Antonella Matland+8.2 beat Ram Kumar−10.9 / Berit Thyness−13.122-20, 21-18 · Mixed doubles · 1. divisjon Sluttspill topp (1. MD) | 5% |
| 24 Mar | William Økland Henriksen+4.6 beat Geir Andre Andersen−4.118-21, 26-24, 21-19 · Men's singles · Trondheim UBM (U15 B) | 5% |
| 17 Mar | Aleksander Dabrowski+7.4 beat Sidharth Sreejith−6.221-19, 12-21, 21-17 · Men's singles · Stovner STOVNER SMASH (U13 A) | 8% |
| 10 Mar | Ida Celine Knausgård+72.4 beat Kristiane Rohde Hallager−48.921-18, 21-15 · Women's singles · Sotra Sparebanken Vest Norway Open 2025 RT 13ABC + 15ABC + 17ABC + 19ABC og Regional U11ABC (U19 B) | 1% |
| 3 Mar | Ekaja Dubey+10.0 / Naimish Doshi+5.7 beat Sen Na−6.2 / Ying Hu−6.512-21, 21-17, 21-19 · Men's doubles · Stavanger Vårblomsten 2025 (SEN B) | 6% |
| 24 Feb | Joar Gåsbakk+25.3 / Elin Hansen+11.9 beat Jonathan Rohde Hallager−13.5 / Kristiane Rohde Hallager−20.021-23, 21-16, 21-17 · Mixed doubles · Grong Namdal Open 2025 (SEN B) | 5% |
| 17 Feb | Adit Sharma+11.2 / Sofie Jin Reistadbakk+11.0 beat Haakon Lærkerød Jelsness−9.1 / Emma Yasmin Ruud−8.218-21, 21-15, 21-19 · Mixed doubles · Junior NM for lag Mellomspill 2 (1. MD) | 11% |
| 10 Feb | Terje Knutseth+25.0 beat Robert Karlsen−19.421-19, 16-21, 21-12 · Men's singles · Verdal Verdalstreffen 2025 (SEN C) | 4% |
| 3 Feb | Anders Heldal+15.7 beat Fred Olaf Sørensen−9.917-21, 21-15, 21-19 · Men's singles · Stanghelle IL Kraftsmashen (SEN C) | 4% |
| 27 Jan | Marte Eggen+16.2 / Johnny Andersen+16.0 beat Sigve Hallager−7.0 / Stephanie Wüstefeld−15.513-21, 21-12, 21-19 · Mixed doubles · Klæbu Smash Cup 2025 (SEN B) | 1% |
| 20 Jan | Terje Knutseth+26.0 beat Liam Hjelle Sæter−19.517-21, 22-20, 21-10 · Men's singles · 3. Divisjon Midt-Norge Grunnspill (2. HS) | 1% |
| 13 Jan | Melanie Antonella Matland+57.3 beat Victoria Heiberg−40.219-21, 21-11, 21-13 · Women's singles · Klemetsrud Kretsmesterskap OFBK / Oslo Vintersmash (SEN A) | 3% |
| 6 Jan | Nancy Hang+18.0 beat Maria Botcharova Ellingsen−15.721-18, 9-21, 21-9 · Women's singles · Frogner RT U13 + Sen* (SEN E) | 5% |